Break-Even Win Rate Calculator

Calculate the win rate a reward-to-risk ratio needs to break even, before and after trading costs.

For any reward-to-risk ratio there is a minimum win rate at which the wins and losses exactly cancel out. Below it a strategy loses money; above it, it makes money. This break-even win rate calculator works out where that threshold sits.

Formula: break-even win rate = (risk + costs) ÷ (risk + reward)

Your figures

Currency

Risk per trade

Amount lost if the stop is hit.

Reward per trade

Amount gained if the target is reached.

Round-trip costs

Optional — spread and commission charged on every trade.

Results

Break-even win rate

33.33%

at a 2.00:1 reward-to-risk ratio

Reward-to-risk ratio: 2.00 : 1
Break-even win rate before costs: 33.33%
Trades that must win, per 100Rounded from the break-even rate above.: 33.3

What this means

At US$100.00 risked against US$200.00 gained, 33.33% of trades must win for the wins and losses to cancel out. This is the rate before any spread or commission, which would raise it. This is a threshold, not a prediction of the win rate you will achieve.

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About the Break-Even Win Rate calculation

It is the most useful counterpart to a risk/reward ratio, because it converts the ratio into something testable. The win rate needed for a 3:1 payoff is 25% of trades reaching the target — a claim that can be checked against a trading record.

This calculator also takes a per-trade cost figure. Costs are charged on winners and losers alike, so they raise the required win rate, and the increase is often larger than traders expect on short-horizon strategies.

Break-Even Win Rate formula

without costs:
break-even win rate = risk ÷ (risk + reward)

with round-trip costs c charged on every trade:
p × (reward − c) = (1 − p) × (risk + c)
break-even win rate = (risk + c) ÷ (risk + reward)

risk: Amount lost when a trade hits the stop.
reward: Amount gained when a trade reaches the target.
c: Round-trip cost — spread plus commission — paid on every trade.

Setting expectancy to zero and solving for the win rate gives the threshold directly. A winner nets the reward less costs; a loser costs the risk plus costs. Equating the two sides and rearranging produces the formula above.

Costs appear in the numerator but not the denominator, which is why their effect is asymmetric. They make winners smaller and losers bigger at the same time, so the required win rate rises faster than the cost figure alone suggests.

The effect scales with how large costs are relative to the trade. A $5 cost against a $500 target is negligible; the same $5 against a $20 scalping target dominates the arithmetic.

Break-Even Win Rate: a worked example

A strategy risking $100 to make $200 per trade, with $10 of round-trip spread and commission.

Reward-to-risk ratio200 ÷ 100 = 2.00 : 1
Break-even before costs100 ÷ (100 + 200) = 33.33%
Break-even after costs(100 + 10) ÷ 300 = 36.67%
Cost drag36.67% − 33.33% = 3.33 percentage points

Costs of $10 per trade — 5% of the target — raise the required win rate by 3.3 percentage points. The strategy must win more than 36.67% of the time to break even.

How to use the Break-Even Win Rate calculator

Enter what you lose on a losing trade and what you gain on a winning one. Currency amounts and price distances both work, as long as both use the same units.
Enter the round-trip cost per trade — spread plus commission — in the same units. Leave it at zero to see the raw threshold.
Compare the result against the win rate your strategy actually achieves. The gap between them is your margin.

Limitations of the Break-Even Win Rate calculator

Every calculation makes assumptions. These are the ones that matter here.

Assumes every win is the same size and every loss is the same size. Real results vary, and the calculation uses averages.
Assumes trades resolve at the stop or the target. Trades closed early for other reasons are not modelled.
Does not model slippage, which behaves like an additional and variable cost.
The break-even percentage is a threshold, not a target. Exceeding it means the strategy made money over the sample, not that it will continue to.

Frequently asked questions about Break-Even Win Rate

Why do costs raise the required win rate so much?

Because they hit both sides. Every winner is worth slightly less and every loser costs slightly more, so the gap the win rate has to close is wider on both ends. The effect is largest when costs are big relative to the target.

Can I use price distances instead of currency amounts?

Yes, provided the risk, reward and cost are all in the same units. The ratio is dimensionless, so the result is the same either way.

What win rate do I need for a 1:1 ratio?

Above 50% before costs. With costs included it rises: risking $100 to make $100 with $5 of costs needs 52.5% rather than 50%.

How do I estimate my round-trip cost?

Add the spread at the moment of entry to any commission charged on both the opening and closing trade, converted into the same units as your risk and reward figures.

Last reviewed 29 August 2026. See our methodology and editorial policy.

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