Trading Expectancy Calculator
Calculate the average result per trade implied by a win rate, average win and average loss, in currency and in R multiples.
Trading expectancy is the average result per trade implied by a win rate, an average win and an average loss. This trading expectancy calculator answers a specific question: over the sample those numbers came from, what was the expected value per trade?
Formula: expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss)
Your figures
Percentage of trades that were profitable.
Optional — projects a cumulative total.
Enter as a positive amount.
Results
Expectancy per trade
+US$60.00
average result per trade
- Projected result over 100 trades
- +US$6,000.00
- Expectancy in R multiplesExpectancy divided by the average loss, so systems of different sizes compare directly.
- +0.600 R
- Reward-to-risk ratio
- 3.00 : 1
- Break-even win rate at this payoffBelow this win rate, expectancy turns negative.
- 25.00%
- Loss rate
- 60.00%
What this means
These figures average out to +US$60.00 per trade. That is the arithmetic mean of the sample entered — it describes what those trades did, not what future trades will do. A positive expectancy over a small sample can still be the result of chance.
- Expectancy is measured on the sample you enter. It assumes future trades are drawn from the same distribution, which real markets do not guarantee.
- Commission, spread and slippage should already be reflected in the average win and average loss.
Expectancy per trade: +US$60.00
The link reopens this calculator with the same numbers. Nothing you enter is sent to a server.
Continue with these figures
About the Trading Expectancy calculation
It is the single figure that combines how often a strategy wins with how much it wins and loses. A 70% win rate means nothing without the sizes attached — a strategy that wins small and loses large can have a high win rate and negative system expectancy.
The result is returned in currency terms and in R multiples, where one R is the average loss. Doubling as an R multiple calculator, it makes systems of very different sizes directly comparable.
Trading Expectancy formula
loss rate = 1 − win rate
expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss)
expectancy in R = expectancy ÷ average loss
break-even win rate = average loss ÷ (average win + average loss)- win rate
- Proportion of trades that were profitable, as a fraction.
- average loss
- Entered as a positive number and subtracted.
- R
- One unit of risk — here, the average loss. A trade making twice the average loss is +2R.
The expectancy formula used in trading is a probability-weighted average. Each outcome is multiplied by how often it occurs, and the losses are subtracted from the wins.
Dividing by the average loss converts the result into R multiples, which strips out position size. A system with +0.4R expectancy produces, on average, 40% of its risk per trade — true whether it risks $10 or $10,000.
The break-even win rate falls out of the same inputs and is often the more actionable number. It states exactly how far the win rate could fall before expectancy turns negative.
Trading Expectancy: a worked example
A strategy that wins 40% of the time, with an average win of $300 and an average loss of $100, over 100 trades.
- Win rate40% = 0.40
- Loss rate1 − 0.40 = 0.60
- Expected win contribution0.40 × 300 = $120
- Expected loss contribution0.60 × 100 = $60
- Expectancy120 − 60 = $60 per trade
- In R multiples60 ÷ 100 = +0.60 R
- Over 100 trades60 × 100 = $6,000
The sample averaged $60 per trade, or 0.6 times the average loss. The break-even win rate at this payoff is 25%, so the win rate had 15 percentage points of margin.
How to use the Trading Expectancy calculator
- Enter the win rate as a percentage of trades that were profitable.
- Enter the average winning trade and the average losing trade. Enter the loss as a positive number.
- Include commission and spread in those averages if you want the result net of costs.
- Optionally enter a trade count to see the cumulative figure the same averages would imply.
Limitations of the Trading Expectancy calculator
Every calculation makes assumptions. These are the ones that matter here.
- Expectancy is measured on the sample you enter and assumes future trades come from the same distribution. Market conditions change, and strategies decay.
- Averages hide the distribution. Two systems with identical expectancy can have very different drawdowns if one has a few large wins and many small losses.
- Small samples are unreliable. Twenty trades tell you very little about a strategy's true expectancy.
- Assumes constant position size. Varying size between trades makes the currency figure less meaningful, though the R figure still holds.
Frequently asked questions about Trading Expectancy
What is a good expectancy?
Any positive expectancy means the sample made money on average, and this calculator does not suggest a target. Its usefulness depends on how many trades the strategy produces: +0.1R over 500 trades a year is a different proposition from +0.1R over five.
What does an R multiple mean?
One R is one unit of risk — in this calculator, the average loss. Expressing expectancy in R removes position size from the comparison, so two strategies can be compared regardless of the amounts traded.
Why enter the average loss as a positive number?
The formula subtracts it, so entering it as a negative would add it back and flip the sign of the result. The calculator rejects negative values rather than silently producing a wrong figure.
Does positive expectancy mean the strategy will be profitable?
No. It means the trades in the sample averaged a profit. Whether that continues depends on the sample being representative and market conditions persisting — neither of which is guaranteed. A positive figure from a small sample can easily be chance.
How is this different from profit factor?
Expectancy is an average per trade; profit factor is a ratio of gross profit to gross loss over the whole sample. Expectancy tells you what a typical trade produced, profit factor tells you how the totals compared.
Last reviewed . See our methodology and editorial policy.
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